No ‘Magic Moment’ to Lift COVID Restrictions

April 6, 2022

There isn’t any “magic moment” for states to carry COVID-19 restrictions similar to face masking guidelines with out dealing with a ensuing rebound in COVID-related deaths, says a brand new examine printed within the Journal of the American Medical Association Health Forum.

Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston Medical Center, and Georgia Tech used a simulation mannequin to mission pandemic deaths in every state between March 1 and Dec. 31, 2022, and predicted how the variety of deaths would possibly change if restrictions have been lifted throughout completely different instances of the yr. 

“In most states, no critical moment was identified after which it would be possible to lift NPIs (nonpharmacologic interventions) without expecting to see a rebounding surge in deaths,” the examine says. “The message that there is no ‘magic moment’ to lift restrictions is important for both sides of the current masking debates in the U.S. Those opposed to mask mandates should recognize the adverse health outcomes related to relaxing transmission mitigation measures.”

However, no quantity of ready to carry restrictions can stave off an inevitable rise in COVID-related demise of a point, the examine mentioned. 

“There is probably going no quantity of extra ready time in any state after which eradicating NPIs is not going to result in an increase in morbidity and mortality,” the examine says.

Benjamin P. Linas, co-first creator and a professor of drugs at Boston University School of Medicine, mentioned the Omicron variant was the primary explanation for the ensuing enhance in deaths.

“The inevitable rebound in mortality was directly attributable to the Omicron variant — when we repeated the analysis, assuming the infectivity of the previous Alpha and Delta variants, the model did not project such rising mortality after relaxing mask mandates,” he advised The Harvard Gazette.

“A difficult trade-off lies on the horizon,” co-senior creator Jagpreet Chhatwal, director of MGH’s Institute for Technology Assessment, advised The Harvard Gazette. “While there is ample evidence in our analysis that a March 2022 lifting date leads to rebound mortality in many states, the simulation also suggests that with the Omicron variant, whenever states do remove mandates will face the same difficult choice between increased COVID-19 mortality and the freedoms of returning to a pre-pandemic norm.

“The one intervention that can mitigate this impossible choice is ongoing COVID-19 vaccination with boosters,” Chhatwal mentioned.

The examine mentioned that coverage makers on the state stage must make tough choices, weighing rising deaths in opposition to a return to normalcy.