Omicron Subvariant Hasn’t Caused a Surge of Cases

April 6, 2022

The Omicron subvariant BA.2 is inflicting the lion’s share of COVID infections within the United States now, however thus far it hasn’t resulted in a surge of instances.

BA.2 accounted for 72% of instances final week, in accordance with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, whereas the general variety of instances has continued to fall. The seven-day every day common of COVID instances was round 25,000 on Tuesday, in comparison with round 44,000 on March 4 and round 312,000 on Feb. 4, the CDC says.

Some well being consultants say there will not be a surge from BA.2.

“I would not be hugely concerned about BA.2,” Christopher Murray, MD, a professor of well being metrics sciences on the University of Washington and the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, instructed NBC News.

“Right now, we’re on this interval the place immunity is excessive and we’re heading into the summer season and transmission tends to be a bit decrease,” he stated. “The mixture ought to lead within the Northern Hemisphere to fairly low ranges after the BA.2 wave.”

Case counts jumped when the Delta and Omicron variants appeared, however that’s not taking place with BA.2, Jessica Justman, MD, an epidemiologist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, instructed CNN.

“This is a transparent instance of how these two traits usually are not essentially tied collectively,” she stated.

When documented COVID infections went up final month in Europe and different elements of the world due to BA.2, U.S. well being consultants frightened the identical factor may occur right here. So far, it hasn’t.

Andy Pekosz, director of the Center for Emerging Viruses and Infectious Diseases at Johns Hopkins University, instructed CNN that the surge in European BA.2 instances occurred as a result of these nations dropped many security precautions when a whole lot of viruses had been nonetheless circulating.

“What you are seeing in Europe could also be ensuing from the truth that they lifted their restrictions early, not a lot that it is BA.2 that is there,” he says.

CNN famous that it’s troublesome to acquire correct case counts now as a result of so many individuals are utilizing residence testing kits and never reporting optimistic outcomes to well being departments.

“I feel there is not any query there’s underreporting of optimistic instances,” Mara Aspinall, a professor at Arizona State University, instructed CNN.

Murray stated he’s frightened extra a few attainable COVID surge within the fall, when immunity supplied by boosters declines and leaves individuals weak, maybe to a model new subvariant.