‘This Pandemic Still Has Legs’: COVID-19 Expert Q&A

Nov. 5, 2021 — With a lot COVID-19 information breaking this week, together with the authorization of vaccinations for kids ages 5 to 11 and a Jan. 4 federal mandate for employees at any firm that employs no less than 100 individuals to be vaccinated or get examined weekly, we needed to take a seat down with Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, to debate the urgent COVID-19 points we’re dealing with proper now.

WebMD: Now that children ages 5 to 11 are eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine, what nonetheless considerations you?

Osterholm: Right now, you will have a scenario the place a few third of fogeys are indicating they may get their youngsters vaccinated as quickly as attainable. Then there are a 3rd of fogeys saying, “Maybe, I will wait and see,” and the ultimate third who’re saying, “No way.” Now we have to see what number of of that center group of fogeys will get their youngsters vaccinated. That may decide what the vacation season will seem like.

WebMD: How do you’re feeling concerning the Biden administration’s mandate for employees to get vaccinated or get examined weekly by Jan. 4?

Osterholm: Lots of people don’t understand that ongoing transmission will preserve occurring on this nation. If you have a look at what we’re seeing within the Southwest, you may see what’s occurring — case numbers are growing rapidly. The backside line is that we’ve got 65 to 70 million individuals left to get contaminated. That’s the problem we’ve got. Look on the Four Corners. In these 4 states [Arizona, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado], case numbers are going approach up, and Colorado’s governor simply introduced they’re deferring elective procedures. All of this units the stage for why this mandate is so essential.

WebMD: Will we ever transfer from pandemic to endemic?

Osterholm: In my podcast, I am going into the challenges of vaccines. One factor I attempt to put ahead is that the euphoria we had virtually a 12 months in the past when the vaccines turned accessible was actual. At the time, knowledge had been displaying 99% safety in opposition to sickness, hospitalization, and demise. That was earlier than we understood what would that seem like 6 to eight months later. Just add up the difficulty of variants in addition to the variety of individuals not protected. Then have a look at the individuals with proof of safety, and we don’t know the way lengthy and the way effectively it can final. This pandemic nonetheless has legs, and it’s why we’ve got to have an enormous dose of humility about this virus.

WebMD: When it involves the booster, some individuals are getting antibody testing to assist determine in the event that they want one. Good thought?

Osterholm: Under no situation do you have to use antibody testing as a gauge of whether or not or not you want a booster. We don’t know what antibody research imply. Just since you make an antibody at the next stage, we don’t know but how this connects to safety. Until we’ve got some sense of correlative elements, resembling how a lot do T cells play a job and what does safety imply and research the place we will correlate immune response and totally different sorts of antibodies, you may’t use antibody testing as a purpose to get the booster — or not.

WebMD: How are you feeling proper now about the place we’re on this pandemic?

Osterholm: I believe so much about: How a lot do we all know? How a lot did we predict we knew? For instance, the vaccines are exceptional however they’re not excellent. That’s a key message.

Also, if this was typical vaccine, we might have spent 5 to six years finding out and taking a look at long-term immunity. We would have gone into the approval course of with an exhaustive file.

We couldn’t do that as a result of we had been in a pandemic, so as soon as we established the protection of the vaccines, we had been in a scenario the place our purpose was to review how one can finest use them, together with what the doses ought to be and what number of doses an individual ought to obtain.

We’re all studying that and attempting to grasp this. And that is essential: This isn’t indecision or incomplete info. We’re studying. It’s an evolving science. The factor I’m studying is to have a good larger dose of humility about this virus.